IN all the discussion and announcements about the CPRS, the Government has always said it remains committed to an unconditional 5% emission reduction target by 2020, so it is reasonable to assume this forms the lower boundary of an Australian emission reduction target. The White Paper also contained a commitment to set a 15% emission reduction target "if there is an agreement where major developing economies commit to substantially restrain emissions and advanced economies take on commitments comparable to Australia's."

In a further announcement made in May, 2009, the Government committed to a 25% emission reduction target by 2020, if there is international agreement to "Comprehensive global action capable of stabilising CO2-e concentrations at 450ppm CO2-e or lower.  This requires a clear pathway to achieving an early global peak in total emissions, with major developing economies slowing the growth and then reducing their emissions, advanced economies taking on reductions and commitments comparable to Australia, and access to the full range of international abatement opportunities through a broad and functioning international market in carbon."

It is clear the conditions for the 25% target have not been met. Although the rhetoric from Copenhagen was to 'limit future temperature increases to 2 degrees"  this would require a 450 ppm CO2-e target which most commentators seem to agree cannot be achieved. It is arguable that the conditions for the 15% target have also not been met, given announced targets by both developing and developed nations. It is also arguable that the agreement that nations will 'note' the provisions of the Copenhagen Accord hardly amount to a binding agreement.

Stand by for extensive arguments on the meaning of words like 'agreement', 'substantially', 'comprehensive' and 'comparable' !